Saba

Because of Divided Oppostion Saba: WIPM could win all seats once again

Members of the WIPM during the presentation of their list in 2019.

The Bottom, Saba- If the opposition on Saba stays divided as they are now, chances are that the Windward Island People Movement (WIPM) would make another ‘clean sweep’ if elections were held on the short term.

This is the conclusion of a political survey executed by the office of Linkels & Partners. While in the Survey the WIPM scores lower than was the case during the 2019 elections, the ‘opposition vote’ on a whole has not grown.

In the 2019 elections, a total of 20.9% of the voters, voted for either the Saba Labor Party (SLP) or Dave Levenstone’s Blanc List (UPM). In the Survey executed by Linkels & Partners the combined opposition would come to 20.3% of all votes. According to the survey the UPM and the SLP have traded places in the meantime. During the 2019 elections the SLP scored 12.7% of votes and the UPM 8.2%. If elections were held now it would -according to the survey results- be the exact other way around: The UPM would now score 12.5% of the vote and the SLP only 7.8%.

Blanc votes

Although overall there seems little change in voting behavior, this does not mean that all is well. While during the 2019 elections less than 1% of voters cast a blanc vote, in the Survey no less than 12.5% of voters indicated they considered to cast a blanc vote if elections were held now. Various respondents indicated that, while they were normally WIPM supporters and they would not easily vote for one of the 2 other parties, they considered to vote blanc the next time around.

Popular

The survey also asked respondents for whom they would vote if elections were held now. The most popular politician at the moment is undoubtedly Bruce Zagers. 20.6% of respondents indicated they would vote for Zagers, if elections were to be held now. Other popular politicians are Vito Charles (10.3%), Hemmie van Xanten (10.3%), Dave Levenstone (8,8%) and Monique Wilson (7.4%).

Commissioner Rolando Wilson and Carl Buncamper both hover around 4.4% of the vote, while no respondent indicated they would vote for Esmeralda Johnson.

Interestingly, 13.2% of voters indicated they would vote for Chris Johnson if he were to participate in local elections on Saba.

Error margin

According to psychologist Harald Linkels, who executed the survey, caution has to be exercised when interpreting the results. “While a good 6% of Saban eligible voters participated in the Survey -which is a decent percentage for a survey- in absolute numbers the sample is relatively small. This means there is a relative big margin of error”. According to Linkels, the survey still provides an interesting insight into the political realities on Saba at the moment.

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