Oranjestad, St. Eustatius, The Bottom, Saba – Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 1. Warning Message No. 1 Date: Tuesday July 28, 2020  Time: 12:23 local time. Tropical Storm warning in effect for potential tropical cyclone NINE. Heavy rain (3-6 inch, possibly upto 8 inch), with risk of flash floods will be the main concern. The system is expected to pass about 63 km SSW of Saba 18 AST and 59 km SSW of Statia 17 AST on Wed Jul 29. Still uncertainty about the track and intensity.

Next bulletin: 03:00 PM AST

Effect on local conditions

Winds:

From Tuesday evening strong easterly winds, force 6, are expected. On Wednesday near gale winds, force 7, possibly gale force 8 (39-46 mph, 62-74 km/h) in the evening with occasional gusts up to 50 kt (60 mph, 90 km/hr) are expected. Winds will gradually veer from NE to S by wednesday evening.

Caution: the system is still in the formative stage, greater than average uncertainty exists regarding both the short-term and longer-term track and intensity forecasts.

Seas:

Wednesday increasing wave heights. Wednesday evening highest waves are expected to be 10-12 ft. Thursday during the course of the day gradually decreasing to 5-8 ft.

Rainfall:

3-6 inches, loc 8 inches, potential threat for flash floods and mudslides.

Local authorities and residents of Saba and St. Eustatius are advised to continue monitoring the further progress of this weather system and to take all necessary measures to safeguard life and property.